Launch app

Scalar prediction markets for finance

Most prediction markets make you pick an exact bucket and pay zero when you miss by one. Here you trade the number itself, so being almost right pays almost fully.

Markets.

One market: the benchmark US high yield credit index, already traded in the trillions each year.

One line. Two sides.

The two prices are the market's live answer to how high credit stress lands. Payouts slide with where the number finishes. Buy a side when you think its price is wrong.

CALMSTRESS
market pricemarket price
the outcome
bought CALM at 70¢+.00
bought STRESS at 30¢+.00

An official index settles the market.

Markets trade opinions. Settlement follows one official number, published daily by the index administrator. No votes, no judges. The number decides.

The officialnumber
Daily publicationsEach dollar divided
01

A scoreboard exists.

An official index tracks stress in US high yield credit: up in fear, down in calm. RAVA does not create or edit the number.

02

The market predicts it.

Every dollar in the market backs two opposite predictions: stress and calm. The two prices sum to about one dollar, so the live price is the market's forecast of where the number finishes.

03

The scoreboard settles it.

At the end of each window, settlement reads the official level and divides every escrowed dollar by the published rule.

Built so the payout is not in question.

Any number can be a market.

One method: take a published number, trade it, settle on it. Credit stress is the first. Inflation, rates, any official number can be next.