Introduction.

This is a working demo, the prices are illustrative, and no capital moves.

Trade the direction you actually know, not the precision you don't. RAVA is a scalar prediction market for financial benchmarks. It settles on a number, and the payout scales with exactly where it lands, so being almost right pays almost fully. Four rules make it what it is. One official market per benchmark. A floor and cap fixed by a published rule before trading opens. Settlement no one can dispute. And anyone can mint the pair for a dollar.

The first market.

The market asks how high credit stress lands, and two shares take opposite sides of it. Stress (sHY) pays more the higher the official number finishes, and calm (cHY) pays the rest. Together they redeem for $1, locked in escrow until an independent administrator's published number divides it. No committee, no vote, no counterparty but the other side of the bet.

Two numbers decide your trade.

Where you bought, and where it lands. Buy sHY at 12¢ and a landing 25% up the range pays $0.25, a little more than double. The same landing after buying at 40¢ loses. Being half right pays half. There is no cliff where a near miss pays nothing.

Scalar markets.

A scalar prediction market settles on a number, not on a yes or no outcome. The payout scales with where the number lands, so being almost right pays almost fully. A binary market pays nothing for a near miss. A scalar market pays in proportion.

What makes this one different.

Most prediction markets ask you to pick an exact bucket and pay zero when you miss by one. RAVA lists one official market per benchmark, with a floor and cap fixed by a published rule before trading opens, and the payout slides with where the number finishes.

The settlement number.

Settlement reads an independent administrator's published number for the benchmark. No committee votes and nothing is interpreted. At the end of each window the market reads that number and divides every escrowed dollar between the two sides.

The most you can lose.

A position cannot lose more than it cost to buy. Each pair is fully collateralized by a dollar held in escrow, and at settlement the two shares divide that dollar. There is no margin and no liquidation.

What is listed today.

One market, on credit stress in US high yield, with a new window opening every March and September.

Go deeper.

Why a market on a number is built differently from a yes or no market is covered in Learn.